It is a watershed moment in Indonesian history that Prabowo Subianto appears to have won the presidential election.
The typically precise early vote tallies showed that he defeated his two opponents by a considerably wider margin than anticipated, despite the fact that surveys had him as the front-runner for weeks leading up to the election.Their collective projections indicate that he will easily surpass the 50% necessary to secure an outright victory in the initial round.
Most Indonesians will now accept that President Prabowo will serve for the next five years, even though the formal confirmation of the final tally is still pending.
What follows next?
It takes a long time for an administration to change in Indonesia. The results will not be confirmed until the Election Commission has worked for at least one month.
October is when the new president will be inaugurated. The kind of administration that Mr. Prabowo forms will be determined after months of heated discussions.
Mr. Prabowo's Gerindra party is only expected to capture about 13% of the parliamentary seats, despite his seemingly decisive victory in the presidential contest.
Offering incentives like cabinet jobs is one way he can win over other parties and gain a functioning majority in parliament, which is necessary for passing bills. Opposing presidential candidates were backed by some of those groups.
A fresh take on the presidency
In his final tenure as president, Joko "Jokowi" Widodo was able to win over more than 80% of the legislative body by skillfully forming coalitions with his opponents.
This made it easier for him to implement his ambitious infrastructure projects and avoid political conflicts, but it also led to what some have referred to as "opposition-less politics" since no one dared to question the government's objectives.
Will Mr. Prabowo, who is known to be less accommodating as a leader, attempt a similar "big tent" style of administration?
And how will he get along with Indonesia's political grande dame and head of the biggest party, Megawati Sukarnoputri of the PDIP?
His surprising shift to the Prabowo camp last year startled the PDIP, the president's primary parliamentary sponsor during his ten years in government, and caused a great deal of animosity. Much will depend on Mr. Prabowo's desire for Ms. Megawati to bury the hatchet and join the ruling coalition, as well as on her readiness to be in opposition.
Even Mr. Prabowo's and President Jokowi's future relationship is up for debate.
The Prabowo campaign was able to win over a large number of voters who would have supported Ganjar Pranowo, the PDIP candidate, thanks in large part to Mr. Jokowi's continued exceptional popularity ratings.
Mr. Prabowo's running mate is his son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka; however, a highly-discussed court decision freed him from the constitutionally-mandated age requirement. In the event that Mr. Prabowo were to become incapacitated—his health being unclear at 72 years of age—the inexperienced Gibran would take over, possibly with the support of his father.
But President Jokowi just has to look at the Philippines to understand how this Faustian deal might backfire.
Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.'s bid for president in 2022 also counted on the endorsement of a well-liked incumbent, Rodrigo Duterte.
Mr. Marcos also accepted the position of running mate, Sara, who is the daughter of Mr. Duterte. Even after two years, the feuding families are still very far apart, and Mr. Duterte has learned the hard way that he is powerless in his role as ex-president. With the president in his possession, Mr. Prabowo may also find that he can get by without the help of his predecessor.
A new leadership style is coming to Indonesia, and the people there will need to adapt.
With the possible exception of their Machiavellian perception of political power, Mr. Prabowo's personality is vastly different from President Jokowi's.
In contrast to the president's amiable demeanor and willingness to work with others, Mr. Prabowo is known for his explosive anger and harsh views. Despite charges of grave human rights violations leveled against him and his unit in the past, he is proud of the lengthy career he enjoyed as an officer in the Indonesian special forces.
Fears of a Prabowo presidency are well-founded among many Indonesians.
An authoritarian leader with xenophobic impulses is his natural inclination. The head of Human Rights Watch, Andreas Harsono, expressed his concern that he remains unchanged and that his character remains unchanged.
Nevertheless, he managed to project an image of a charming grandfather figure to the people during the campaign.
He has become noticeably weary during campaign rallies and is less steady on his feet now that he is 72 years old. His ambition to become president has allegedly transformed him, according to some.
Also, keep in mind that Mr. Prabowo has been running for president for quite some time, with his first attempt coming in 2004. After being exiled and dismissed from the army in 1998, he skillfully restored his reputation. On his way to power, he displayed patience and cunning.
He presents himself less as a radical departure and more as the heir to a long series of Indonesian presidents, and he has pledged time and time again to carry on with policies that prioritize development and infrastructure, much like his predecessor.